Forex glossary
Dot Plot (Fed Funds Rate Projections)
The dot plot in the Fed's economic projections shows FOMC participants' individual assessments of appropriate federal funds rates at specified year-ends and over the longer run. It includes participants who are not voting at that meeting. These are conditional projections, not a collective decision or a commitment to raise or cut rates.
Illustrative example
How does it work in practice?
Suppose three hypothetical projections for the same year-end rate are 3%, 3.5% and 4%. The median is 3.5%, but it is neither an enacted policy rate nor a promise to reach that level.
A case to work through
The middle projection
Five fictional same-horizon projections are 3%, 3%, 3%, 4% and 5%.
- The ordered middle value is 3%.
- The mean is 3.6%, so it differs from this median.
What follows? Describe the median as a projection summary.
Example boundary: This is neither the current dot plot nor a policy commitment.
Projection and decision
Text description of the diagram
- Individual dot: One participant's appropriate-policy judgment.
- Median: The set's middle-value summary.
- Decision: A separate formal committee action.
A useful distinction
Dot Plot (Fed Funds Rate Projections) / Central Bank Rate Decision
The dot plot presents projections; a rate decision establishes policy.
Check your understanding
Find a fictional projection median without treating it as a decision.
Show the answer and explanation
No, it remains a projection summary
A formal decision has separate status.
Reading central-bank decisions
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Related terms
Sources and documentation
- September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
Explains dots as individual policy projections for specified horizons.
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The example illustrates the mechanism. Check current account conditions and instrument specifications with the provider.