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Fundamental analysis

Central bank decisions, NFP, CPI, GDP, economic calendar — how to read macro data and what really moves a currency.

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Three short paths help you choose the right explanation. The complete topic list follows below.

Prepare to read a release

  1. Economic calendar — how to use it step by step
  2. Leading and lagging indicators — cycles, clocks and vintages
  3. CPI and forex: inflation measures, forecasts and execution risk

Follow a central-bank decision

  1. Fed decisions: target range, expectations and dollar pairs
  2. The Fed dot plot — how to read interest-rate projections
  3. Central-bank minutes — how to read policy meeting records

Separate US data from interpretation

  1. NFP — reading jobs, earnings and revisions
  2. Initial jobless claims and the dollar exchange rate
  3. ISM Manufacturing PMI — the US industry gauge and the 50 line

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Fundamental analysis: data, expectations and both currencies8 min →NFP — reading jobs, earnings and revisions7 min →Fed decisions: target range, expectations and dollar pairs7 min →
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Fundamental analysis: data, expectations and both currencies8 min →NFP — reading jobs, earnings and revisions7 min →Fed decisions: target range, expectations and dollar pairs7 min →ECB decisions: policy rates, expectations and euro analysis7 min →Economic calendar — how to use it step by step7 min →US retail sales — nominal growth, surprises and revisions7 min →The ifo Business Climate Index — levels, expectations and revisions6 min →Tankan — read DI, firms’ forecasts and data vintages7 min →Watching central banks together — Fed, ECB and BoJ6 min →GDP and forex — how growth data moves the dollar6 min →Leading and lagging indicators — cycles, clocks and vintages7 min →CPI and forex: inflation measures, forecasts and execution risk6 min →Central-bank minutes — how to read policy meeting records7 min →Bank of England decisions: votes, expectations and GBP pairs6 min →JOLTS — the job openings report the Fed reads6 min →Fed speeches — conditions, context and currency observations7 min →Interest rate parity: forwards, UIP and carry risk7 min →The COT report — can retail traders actually use it?7 min →US trade balance — signs, revisions, prices and GDP7 min →Hawkish vs dovish — what these central-bank words mean6 min →Bank of Japan: policy measures, YCC and yen financing risk7 min →The Fed dot plot — how to read interest-rate projections8 min →Swiss franc and SNB intervention — data, quotes and exposure8 min →Bank of Canada rate decisions and the Canadian dollar7 min →ISM Services PMI — the US services gauge that moves the dollar7 min →Michigan sentiment — vintages, units and inflation expectations7 min →China PMI: former Caixin, current RatingDog and the 50 threshold6 min →PCE inflation — index levels, rates and the Fed’s target7 min →Initial jobless claims and the dollar exchange rate6 min →ISM Manufacturing PMI — the US industry gauge and the 50 line7 min →Economic calendar — a guide to 12 releases and their measures7 min →